Tuesday, June 07, 2011

Tiger Woods stuck on 14?

Fifteen or so years ago, the late Earl Woods predicted lots of things for his uber-talented son Eldrick, just coming up short of describing his life as the second coming of  JC himself.
One thing that's always struck me is that while Earl was so over the top about Tiger he predicted his son would one day win 14 golf majors.
This is weird because Earl would have known Tiger's obsession with Jack Nicklaus' 18 majors and his son's determination to beat that mark.
Golf World writer John Strege, who began covering Tiger at age 14 said this about Earl when he died in 2006: ``If he was guilty of anything it was overspeaking at times. After Tiger won his second US Amateur, Earl started celebrating early and predicted Tiger would win 14 major championships. He got criticised for that because you can't put that on a 19-year-old kid. In hindsight, Earl probably underestimated it.”''
In hindsight, maybe Earl knew his son better than anyone.
Woods is stuck on 14 majors, with none to his name in three years since his limp-to-victory over Rocco Mediate at the 2008 US Open at Torrey Pines.
He hasn't won the Masters in six years, it's been five years since his last British Open triumph, the emotional one which came shortly after Earl died, and four years since his last PGA Championship.
A lot has happened to Woods in the last three years: severe injuries, being exposed as an adulterer, coming out as a sex addict, losing his mana, losing his swing, changing his coach, getting divorced and now, injured again. The latest injury news means he will miss next week's US Open. 
It's time to ask whether Woods, at the age of 35, is done. Will Earl's prediction end up being spot on, that Woods will be forever stuck on 14 majors, falling short of Jack's mark due to a combination of his own weaknesses, both in body and mind.
I have serious worries that Woods can make it back to the force he once was but that doesn't mean his pursuit of Jack's mark of 18 is done and dusted. If Woods learns to swing within himself and get by on his once magical putting, he can win plenty more tournaments.
And don't forget Nicklaus won four of his majors after the age of 38, including three in 40s. And golf is full of players who get a second life in their late 30s and 40s and go on to become major contenders.
Courtesy of paul.edrosky.com
To illustrate the two golfers' careers I found this great graph on http://paul.kedrosky.com/
which he did back in 2009. The only thing that changes is that the flat-line for Woods at 14 continues for two more years!
But what Woods will have to face that Nicklaus never did, is a generation of young powerhouse swingers inspired by Woods and chasing the riches only made possible by Woods.
While Nicklaus was the star of his class he's had nowhere near the same effect on golf as Woods.
To win more than 14 majors Woods will first have to make a full physical recovery, then he has to get his game in order (maybe restricted his distance and going for a Luke Donald- or Jim Furyk-style of golf) and then he will have to overcome a much deeper list of contenders than Jack ever had to face.

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